During the alternating period of new and old cotton, the purchase of new seed cotton is closely related to the lint cost in the new season, and the industry has paid high attention! Since late September, Zheng Mian Futures has accelerated its rise, especially after the main contract station reached the 20000 yuan/ton threshold, attracting more attention from the market. On Friday (October 15), the main contract of Zheng Mian was sealed on the limit again, and the bulls cheered, but the good times did not last long. After opening high at night on Friday, they fell one after another, basically giving back the gains of the day. The sharp fluctuation of futures prices has made many real enterprises a bit confused, and the main bodies of the market have different performances.
❑ Slow down of raw material procurement of textile enterprises
It is understood that many textile enterprises have slowed down their raw material procurement since Zheng Mianpeng rose to the 20000 level, and some enterprises have even suspended their spot procurement of lint. On the one hand, the cost of purchasing raw materials in the early stage was mostly 17000-18000 yuan/ton, and most of the orders received by enterprises locked in profits at this cost. It was difficult for the prices of gauze products to rise, which could not absorb the current increase in raw materials. Enterprises with raw materials inventory were basically consuming inventory; On the other hand, previously, cotton was purchased at futures prices, but now the futures prices have risen sharply, and point purchase has lost the advantage of bargain hunting; In addition, the market lacks high performance price ratio lint of double 28 or more, which makes some textile enterprises feel under great pressure; Moreover, due to the sharp fluctuation of future prices, it is difficult for textile enterprises accustomed to stable operation to carry out production and marketing planning smoothly, and they have to postpone the purchase of raw materials and the receipt of orders by enterprises.
❑ Ginning plant and cotton farmers have unstable purchase and sales mentality
The cotton price fluctuated sharply, which made ginning enterprises and cotton farmers' buying and selling of seed cotton more upset. A ginning enterprise in Changji, Xinjiang, said that such a situation was rare in the past 20 years. Originally, the opening price of seed cotton was high this year, but sometimes the futures price rose or dropped by more than 1000 yuan per ton within the day. Before, the seed cotton price was adjusted at most once a day, but now it is not enough to adjust it five or six times a day. Cotton farmers expect to increase the price of their goods with the help of futures, but ginning enterprises expect to reduce the purchase price with the help of futures. Both parties pay more attention to the trend of futures prices than in previous years in order to strive for as much profit as possible.
Despite the downstream market, as far as cotton itself is concerned, there is evidence for strong prices. First, the cost of new cotton continues to be high, and second, China's cotton output this year is lower than expected.
First, analyze the cost of new cotton. Since Xinjiang opened the market to purchase new cotton, the collection price of seed cotton has fluctuated, but the overall trend has kept rising. After the National Day holiday, due to the conversion of new cotton costs, the price of seed cotton has been significantly inverted. Most flower factories in northern and southern Xinjiang stopped reporting and harvesting seed cotton. However, cotton farmers have high expectations for new cotton, and it is difficult to lower the price. At present, the price of machine picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is still above 10.5 yuan/kg, and some of it is near 11 yuan/kg; Nanjiang Flower Factory was a little cautious, and the actual price of machine picked cotton was around 10.3-10.5 yuan/kg. Calculated by 10.5 yuan/kg machine picked cotton and 3.3 yuan/kg cottonseed, the lint processing cost is still around 24000 yuan/ton. In addition, the progress of new cotton sales in this year is slow. Most flower factories in Northern Xinjiang reported that the acquisition in the same period last year was nearing the end, but the current actual revenue this year was mostly less than half of the planned volume. The reason is that the progress of new cotton in this year was 7-10 days later than last year, and the stalemate between cotton farmers and flower factories also slowed down the acquisition progress. The operating rate of domestic cotton processing enterprises was monitored. As of this week, the operating rate was 45.07%, 5.63% higher than that of last week. The operating rate in the same period last year was around 70%.
Secondly, it is the domestic cotton output this year. According to the market feedback, cotton farmers, flower factories, trade, etc. have many reactions that the cotton yield this year is lower than last year. Last year was one of the few years with good weather in recent years. The average per unit area yield of cotton in China reached 134.33 kg/mu (referring to lint), the highest since historical data, with a total output of about 6.15 million tons. This year, it is estimated that the total cotton output will decline to about 5.6 million tons, mainly due to the decline of per unit area yield in Xinjiang and the sharp reduction of cotton planting areas in the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River basin in the mainland. In addition, Shandong, Hebei and other places had a lot of rain from September to October this year, which was the time when cotton was concentrated to open bolls. Continuous rain led to a significant decline in cotton quality and quantity.
However, although there is no problem in cotton's upward trend in terms of its own cost and output reduction, orders and yarn prices of downstream yarn are not good, local power rationing also limits the actual operation of yarn mills, and in addition, there is still an intention to stabilize the price in macro terms, which has a suppressive effect on the cotton market. In the short term, new cotton is still on the market. Under the game between the flower factory and the cotton farmer, the cotton cost is still an important concern in the market. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong and the market will follow the cost logic. However, according to the sales progress, the acquisition will gradually come to an end at the end of the month or the beginning of the next month. At that time, if the demand continues to not improve, the market will gradually turn.
❑ Cotton trading enterprises are particularly cautious
Faced with the high frequency fluctuation of cotton prices, many cotton trading enterprises operate cautiously this year. On the one hand, the current market supply and demand pattern has not changed much, but the price has reached a historical high; On the other hand, no matter the macro market changes or the supporting role of the new cotton cost, there is greater uncertainty. The current high fluctuation frequency reflects the divergence of the industry on the future market direction to a certain extent.
❑ Downstream gauze market
After the cotton price rose sharply, the cotton yarn price rose sharply, but the market trading atmosphere was cold and few deals were concluded. The international cotton price has driven the price of outer yarn up, but the increase is obviously weaker than that of domestic yarn. The competitiveness of imported cotton yarn has increased. Recently, the enthusiasm for inquiry and picking up goods in China's bonded area has recovered. The price of grey fabric in the downstream market has kept rising, and most enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.